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Unit outages and retirements in New South Wales impacted the energy market in April, and led to speculation about price volatility moving forward.
Spot market
The spot price fell in both Queensland (down $13.14 to $109.94) and New South Wales (down $5.17 to $110.84) in April. The unseasonably hot and humid weather we saw in March gave way to cooler temperatures, reducing the pressure on the grid, even as unit outages continued to limit supply in New South Wales.
In Victoria, however, the spot price was up $21.59 (to $83.62). The outages in New South Wales led to an increase in demand for energy from Victorian generators, driving the Victorian price up throughout April.
Contract market
In the forward market, there was little to no movement in the Cal 24 price for Queensland (steady at $107.65) and New South Wales (down just five cents to $131.90), but the Victorian price was up $4.95 (to $89.55).
Victoria has been perceived to be underpriced in recent times, but with those outages in New South Wales, we’re seeing the Victorian price rise.
Looking ahead to Cal 25, there’s been speculation about how outages and high-profile unit retirements in New South Wales will impact price volatility moving forward.
This, combined with a perception that the back end has been underpriced, has led to an increase in customers looking to lock in their Cal 25 contracts – and an increase in price in Queensland (up 80 cents to $89.60), New South Wales (up $7.70 to $122) and Victoria (up $7.10 to $75.45).
Environmental market
In the environmental market, an increase in retail buying led the price of Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs) to rise for the second month in a row, up $3.35 to $52.60.
The price of Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) finished April slightly lower, down 90 cents to $37.60, after news of a hard cap on emissions had led to a price bump in March.
Finally, the clearing house for Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs) once again remained in deficit throughout April, keeping STCs at the fixed price of $40.
And that’s it for April… wishing you all the best for May from the team at Stanwell Energy!
