The first month of Spring brought sunny days, an El Niño announcement and more uncertainty over the future of Eraring Power Station. Here’s your September energy market update.
In the spot market, prices dropped across Queensland (down $16.86 to $50.77) New South Wales (down $28.77 to $64.54) and Victoria (down $38.35 to $26.31), with sufficient generation to meet AEMO’s requirements throughout the month of September.
Due to the number of sunny days, solar generation dominated the grid in the middle of the day, resulting in the spot market prices being negative for most of the day.
Contract market
In the contract market, prices continued to lift in Queensland (up $5.65 to $101.70) and New South Wales (up $3.60 to $125.40), only dropping marginally in Victoria (down $0.40 to $73.20).
An El Niño weather pattern has been confirmed for the summer season ahead with expected warmer-than-usual temperatures and reduced rainfall, which is affecting contract prices and will no doubt affect the spot market as we head into the warmer months.
Uncertainty over the future of Eraring Power Station in New South Wales is also causing volatility in the market with its 2025 closure yet to be confirmed.
Looking further ahead to Cal 26, the Eraring closure is also impacting prices – where we saw minor movement from last month’s prices. Queensland was up $2.85 to $95.75, New South Wales rose $2.75 to $128.75 and Victoria dropped $0.20 to $75.00.
Environmental market
In the environmental market, there seems to be more sellers of Large-Scale Generation Certificates, or L-G-Cs. As a result the front end of the LGC Curve, particularly Cal 23, have traded lower (down $2.25 to $51.75).
Australian Carbon Credit Units, or A-C-C-Us, remained steady in September, dropping $0.10 to $30.40.
The Small-Scale Technology Certificates, or S-T-C, Clearing House is no longer in deficit, which has seen wholesale trading resume in late September at prices slightly lower than the clearing house cap of $40.00 (down $0.20 to $39.80).
And that’s it for September – wishing you all the best for October from the team at Stanwell Energy!
