In the spot market, we saw prices buck the downward trend of the last few months and go up in Queensland (finishing the month up $35.92 at $72.97), New South Wales (up $45.27 at $87.35) and Victoria (up $17.75 at $34.94).
There were a few reasons for this. There was more cloud coverage compared to October, pushing the renewable output to lower levels. This meant we didn’t see the same periods of negative pricing in November that brought down the average price in October.
November also saw unplanned outages in New South Wales that pushed spot prices higher.
Due to warmer weather throughout November, there was also more demand for air conditioning at all hours of the day, which contributed to the rise in spot prices.
Contract market
While prices were on the rise in the spot market, it was a different story in the forward market.
The expected return of a number of units that have been offline means there’s shaping up to be plenty of generation availability in the year ahead, particularly in Queensland and New South Wales.
That optimistic forecast for availability has led Cal 25 prices to decrease – finishing the month down $2.40 in Queensland at $91.25; down $8.05 in New South Wales at $106.35; and down 50 cents in Victoria at $68.20.
Looking further ahead, Cal 26 prices are following the same trend, and are also down across the board. Queensland finished down 60 cents at $89.65; New South Wales down $6.90 at $111.55; and Victoria down $2.50 at $67.
Environmental market
It was an eventful month in the environmental market.
The Federal Government announced an expansion of the Capacity Investment Scheme. This announcement has put downward pressure on the price of Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs), which finished down $2.60 at $46.90.
On the other hand, buying demand picked up throughout the month for Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs), which closed $1.75 higher at $32.00.
Finally, the clearing house for Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs) entered surplus during the month, which meant wholesale trading of these certificates resumed. This resulted in STC prices falling, and by the end of November, they were trading consistently at $39.30, down 60 cents on last month.
That’s it for the November wrap. We hope you’ve enjoyed our 2023 market updates, and from all of us at Stanwell Energy, we wish you a safe holiday season.
