April 2024 – Market Update

Market Update – April 2024

Spot prices were on the rise in the energy market this month – and that had a flow-on effect for the forward market.

Spot market

In the spot market, unit outages and low winds lead to rising prices across the National Electricity Market. The spot price finished up $10.66 in Queensland (at $84.75), up $19.42 in New South Wales (at $89.89), and up $32.76 in Victoria (at $84.75), where wind makes up a larger proportion of generation.

Contract market

Those higher-than-expected prices in the spot market have also had an impact on the contract market.

Bullish sentiment saw the curve push up considerably throughout the month, but it cooled off somewhat on the last day of April, following reports that Australia’s largest coal-fired power station will remain open past its expected closure date in 2025. Cal 25 prices ultimately finished up $8.75 in Queensland (at $97.50), up $8.20 in New South Wales (at $109.55), and up $8 in Victoria (at $72.20).

When we look ahead to Cal 26, we can see that same sentiment leading to similar price increases across the board, finishing the month up $5.70 in Queensland (at $93.25), up $6.65 in New South Wales (at $110.15), and up $6 in Victoria (at $68.75).

Environmental market

In the environmental market, an increase in buying demand has put upward pressure on prices for both Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs), finishing up 10 cents at $46.35.

Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) also closed higher, up 75 cents at $34.

The clearing house for Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs) returned to deficit close to the Q1 surrender deadline. That led STC creators to sell to the clearing house, rather than engage in wholesale trading, resulting in a price increase – finishing up five cents at $39.90.

And that’s it for April! We look forward to seeing you for another market update next month.