Author: Kate

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April 2024 – Market Update

Market Update – April 2024

Spot prices were on the rise in the energy market this month – and that had a flow-on effect for the forward market.

Spot market

In the spot market, unit outages and low winds lead to rising prices across the National Electricity Market. The spot price finished up $10.66 in Queensland (at $84.75), up $19.42 in New South Wales (at $89.89), and up $32.76 in Victoria (at $84.75), where wind makes up a larger proportion of generation.

Contract market

Those higher-than-expected prices in the spot market have also had an impact on the contract market.

Bullish sentiment saw the curve push up considerably throughout the month, but it cooled off somewhat on the last day of April, following reports that Australia’s largest coal-fired power station will remain open past its expected closure date in 2025. Cal 25 prices ultimately finished up $8.75 in Queensland (at $97.50), up $8.20 in New South Wales (at $109.55), and up $8 in Victoria (at $72.20).

When we look ahead to Cal 26, we can see that same sentiment leading to similar price increases across the board, finishing the month up $5.70 in Queensland (at $93.25), up $6.65 in New South Wales (at $110.15), and up $6 in Victoria (at $68.75).

Environmental market

In the environmental market, an increase in buying demand has put upward pressure on prices for both Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs), finishing up 10 cents at $46.35.


Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) also closed higher, up 75 cents at $34.

The clearing house for Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs) returned to deficit close to the Q1 surrender deadline. That led STC creators to sell to the clearing house, rather than engage in wholesale trading, resulting in a price increase – finishing up five cents at $39.90.

And that’s it for April! We look forward to seeing you for another market update next month.

 

 

 

 

 

March 2024 – Market Update

March was a relatively uneventful month in the energy market, but a busy month for the Stanwell Energy team, as we took to the road with our new Progressive Purchasing Portal.

Throughout the month, our Retail team visited our partners and consultants in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne to demonstrate our brand new Progressive Purchasing Portal.

The Portal allows our customers to submit offers to purchase energy online at live market prices, at their own convenience, progressively throughout the life of their contract.

Our portal puts the power back in your hands, by allowing you to purchase energy when you choose. This will only enhance the experience for our valued customers, making the purchasing process more accessible, convenient and manageable.

If you missed out on one of these presentations, please reach out to us for a demonstration!

Now, let’s take a look at the state of the market in March.

 

Spot market

In the spot market, we saw prices fall across the board – closing at $74.09 in Queensland (down $45.64), $70.47 in New South Wales (down $41.20), and $51.99 in Victoria (down $30.95).

This was mainly due to high unit availability in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. At the same time, we had relatively mild weather in all three states. That helped to drive down demand, and prices fell accordingly.

Contract market

 

In the contract market, low liquidity and less volume trading overall in generic baseload swaps had led the curve to drift downwards in February.

That drop in price led to a bit of buying in March – enough for prices to go up slightly, finishing the month at $88.75 in Queensland (up 50 cents), $101.35 in New South Wales (up $2.35), and $64.20 in Victoria (up $3.40) – but not enough to really move the needle this month.

Looking ahead to Cal 26, prices are similarly flat. In Queensland, the Cal 26 price finished the month at $87.55, up $1.60.

In New South Wales, continued speculation on the lifespan of Australia’s largest coal-fired power station led to a slight drop in price – closing at $103.50, down $1.55.

In Victoria, where Cal 26 prices have been on the decline for months, we saw the back end crawl up to be more in line with the Cal 25 price – closing at $62.75, up $5.75.

This follows an incident in February that saw extreme winds topple six of the state’s high voltage transmission towers. That led to a sharp, sudden rise in the spot price, which seems to have spurred some interest in the forward market there.

Environmental market 


In the environmental market, an increase in retail buying led to a small uptick in prices for Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs), which closed the month at $46.25 (up 50 cents).


Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs) saw a similarly slight price increase, closing at $39.85 (up 20 cents).


Speculation around the supply of Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) led the price of those units to rally throughout the month. But as those rumours cooled off, so did ACCU prices, ultimately closing at $33.25 (down $1.75).

And that’s it for March! We look forward to seeing you for another market update next month – and don’t forget to get in touch if you want a demonstration of our Progressive Purchasing Portal in the meantime!